Food supply chain resilience and the COVID‐19 pandemic: What have we learned?

A year into the COVID-19 pandemic, this paper reflects on changes that occurred in agrifood supply chains Canada and United States. The sudden shift food consumption patterns from service to retail required realignment of chains. For most part, have performed remarkably well during pandemic. Cross-border continued function effectively. significant disruptions emerged workforce outbreaks meat processing sector fruit vegetable production. discusses chain resilience argues are characterized by several important differences need be taken consideration when evaluating resilience. Economies scale scope offer economic efficiency advantages normal times, while investments adaptability flexibility can enhance for abnormal times. Potential long-run within include increased automation digitalization chains, infrastructure online delivery services permanently altered retailing landscape. Un an après le début de la pandémie du COVID-19, ce document se penche sur les changements survenus dans chaînes d'approvisionnement agroalimentaire au et aux États-Unis. Le changement soudain des modes consommation alimentaire restauration à vente détail a nécessité un réalignement alimentaire. Pour plupart, sont remarquablement bien comportées pendant pandémie. Les transfrontalières ont continué fonctionner efficacement. perturbations plus importantes apparues suite d'épidémies marché travail secteur transformation viande production fruits légumes. discute résilience chaîne soutient que caractérisées par plusieurs différences qui doivent être prises en considération lors l'évaluation résilience. économies d'échelle gamme offrent avantages termes d'efficacité économique temps normal, tandis investissements l'adaptabilité flexibilité peuvent améliorer période anormale. potentiels long terme sein comprennent une automatisation numérisation accrues alimentaire, l'infrastructure livraison ligne modifié manière permanente paysage produits alimentaires. In 2020 special issue Canadian Journal Agricultural Economics, “COVID-19 Agriculture Food Sector: Thoughts Pandemic Onset” (Ker & Cardwell, 2020), I contributed “Food pandemic” (Hobbs, which was written early April first few weeks global provides opportunity reflect what we learned about resiliency since time. To extent did rebound initial demand shocks discussed paper, evident or still taking shape? How vulnerable were logistics, particularly cross-border labor supply? What permanent how might continue adapt adjust future? focus Canadian/North American context. perspectives implications pandemic security developing countries, see Cardwell Ghazalian (2020) Reardon Swinnen (2020). During months elsewhere subject sharp upended operations. these as people avoided restaurants public venues over fears infection, governments imposed lockdowns bid curb spread virus. geared up needed different product offerings, packaging sizes, distribution channels supplying sector. poultry sector, example, chicken wings other products popular outlets plummeted breaker eggs (used processing) dropped significantly (Malone al., 2020). dairy consumers remaining at home temporary closure cafés saw large declines cream cheese, only partly offset increases household such yogurt, butter, fluid milk (Weersink 2021). Similar sectors March through May 2020. Panic-buying behaviors consumers, highly visible outcome (empty store shelves some products), proved short-run phenomenon. As predicted caused largely effects, adapted panic buying subsided. By mid late summer 2020, markets had stabilized, with prices returning near levels. Given biological nature agricultural systems, there inevitable lags ability systems respond market conditions. Differences lengths breeding cycles (short broilers, cattle), seasonal cropping patterns, result speeds adjustment across commodities. perishable commodities is further constraint: farmers deliver daily, vegetables must harvested ripe, livestock processed optimal weights. resulted isolated but publicized cases waste: thrown away, fresh rotting, animals euthanized, efforts made redirect foods alternative where feasible (food banks, example). One persistent refrains discourse emerging has been vulnerable, not resilient, they somehow failed, waste often held “evidence” effect. fact, if look actually transpired following onset States well. Certainly, problems arose, respect health workers (meat) plants, discuss below. unprecedented however, would regardless system. Initial problematic closed temporarily affected wholesale Furthermore, school closures may exacerbated insecurity communities given reliance populations lunch programs, heavy portions society banks subsidized meals highlights troubling gaps social safety net policies, along inequalities, does necessarily signal problem system per se.1 Transportation represent potential vulnerabilities span geographical distances cross international borders. Agrifood trade Canadian–US border both countries. importer beef cattle Canada, US–Canadian hog closely integrated flows, North also integrated, States, Mexico. Any thickening borders costs reduces competitiveness While causes (buy-national polices, sanitary phytosanitary measures, etc.), appear weakened integrity Despite movement restrictions, quarantine requirements, being nonessential travel, countries moved quickly exempt individuals engaged transportation thereby allowing flow border. moves integral system, European Union (EU), between Kingdom EU. An lesson importance prioritizing open essential goods crisis, fact already established functioning effectively likely it easier put place steps ensure their smooth operation. establishment new time crisis appears more imposition export examples vaccines, medical supplies, personal protective equipment. second vulnerability involves labor, including risk shortages due worker illness, self-isolation, restrictions. concerns regarding labor-intensive primary (such horticulture), rely foreign visa schemes eased, minimal flows Instead, substantive safety. situation plants conducive virus environmental factors (cold humidity) operational design (workers standing side-by-side crowded noisy lines) (Aday Aday, 2020; Hobbs, 2021), living conditions alluded concentrated processing, proactive measures address vulnerability. Nevertheless, difficult imagine subsequently facilities. At writing packing begun experiencing problems. changed rapidly April, 30 US facilities (Luckstead major Daily volumes pork 40% below 2019 levels last week federally inspected slaughter averaging 22% 2-month period June (Lusk According Centers Disease Control Prevention, 9% plant infected occurring 239 (Waltenberg Weersink 2021).2 severe reported number Brazil, Europe Luckstead 2021; Tonsor Schulz, concentrated, three accounting 85% capacity. Domestic capacity declined 60% April/early experienced (and US) stages introduction distancing protocols (masks, screens, etc.) reduced (although eliminated) occurrence workplace slower line speeds.3 Temporary highlighted unexpected shocks, high level interdependencies livestock, pushing down prices, fall meats pushed prices. widening price spreads wholesale/retail returned comparable pre-COVID-19, settling out summer/early Fall undoubtedly occurred, relevant counterfactual whether (e.g., less diffuse, local) fared any differently facing same Using simulation analysis, Ma Lusk (2021) find produced outcomes much different. Their analysis suggests better able maintenance relatively output, diffuse (with small plants) ensuring output minimum threshold; terms magnitude. lowers total welfare loss economies therefore higher prices) (Ma Lusk, discussion Were (or should) resilient? heart debate tension two worldviews 2021): one current effective efficient, benefitting bolster worldview holds dispersed featuring larger smaller firms localized offers face exogenous affect critical points chain. reality, learn something perspectives. concrete definition elusive, variously referring robustness, adaptability, transformability, recovery, reorientation. ecological (systems) perspective emphasizes absorb change; psychological focuses control, coherence, connectedness responding shock; management deal uncertainty related logistics; organizational internal capabilities organization (firm) (Ponomarov Holcomb, 2009). useful distinguish inherent firms, markets, (resilience times) adaptive times). Drawing upon multiple disciplinary perspectives, Ponomarov Holcomb (2009) resilience: “the capability prepare events, disruptions, recover them maintaining continuity operations desired control structure function” (p. 131). Much general literature deals manufacturing resilience, processes, perishability, structure, necessity, perspective. process inherently biological, leaving little response events once crops planted, chicks hatched, calves bred. storable (grains oilseeds), others perishability reducing alter schedules short notice disruption. These constraints apply Although exist commodity sectors, tend numbers (relatively) producers sandwiched upstream input downstream sectors. development differentiated value dynamic instances, fairly many coordinate base production, differs automobiles electronics. Finally, (along energy) basic human need. disruption energy4) supplies far consequential than good inability secure dishwasher, automobile, barbecue inconvenient mildly irritating threat will garner attention. Thus, generally) emotive, politically sensitive topic. Indeed, disentangle broader concept individual firm's perspective, context recognize dealing series interrelated, interconnected Love al. “action cycle” framework, absorbs disruption, reacts, restores, learns, builds robustness future events. defined its units levels, provide sufficient, appropriate accessible all, various even unforeseen disturbances” (Tendall 2015, p. 19). Large-scale advantages, lowering providing efficiently “normal” Adding preparation times sacrifice efficiency, depending achieved identify particular Worker vegetables, Immediate strategies reduce risks involved procedures practices, equipment, improved hygiene protocols. straightforward implement, (particularly distancing) slow lines, throughput. Smaller indeed fixed capital investments. Longer-run adaptations digitalization. Automation, use robotics dependency labor. relative cost risen lines speeds, improve Robotics commonly used activities involving uniform tasks, quality control. Applying complicated wide variation animal carcass sizes Similarly, arising protocols, recognition point vulnerability, make technical feasibility attention fundamentally shifted transaction work environment millions Canadians working home, digital communication, contactless electronic transactions. technologies new, accelerated adoption mainstream business activities. Once adopted, unlikely disadopted, rate Examples verification (including application blockchain technology), compliance certification regulatory delivery, marketing. components Adaptability ways. Thilmany local regional actors With shorter stronger interpersonal relationships networks, pivot nimbly marketing buyers. dispersed, lack weather climate change). Without start position shocks. strong networks strategy Chenarides out, real options approach decision-making, investing supplier against disruptions. hard-hit rounds lockdowns. This created additional meant seeking diversified outlets, adapting grocery growing meal kit business. Rapid uptake sustained apparent Statistics reports 77% increase ecommerce sales beverage February September 2020.5 Ecommerce (not just beverage) marked increase, peaking businesses restaurants) lockdown, surging again (Statistics adopted shopping time, although too tell represents behavior postpandemic, seems case. Multiple channel dramatically expanded using combination offline channels, click collect, in-store purchases (Nielsen, income time-constrained lower search facilitate temporal planning take advantage time-limited discounts fees). Investments infrastructure, mobile apps, software scaled expansion here stay component Third-party providers Instacart, Skip-the-Dishes, DoorDash, Uber Eats act aggregators, connecting sellers diverse customer base. invested own services, recognizing consumer expectations access. If large-scale retailers perceive key competitive then seek manage those in-house rather outsource third-party aggregator. stage, predict competition aggregators vertically service) play out. looking back transpired, beginning reverberate settled large, surprisingly Grocery remained stocked, panic-buying subsided adjusted purchase retail. geographically mitigated keep flowing necessary protect hospitality dependent outlets. become businesses. Labor-related Where technologically economically feasible, ways adopt mechanization shone spotlight perception reality. Caution should exercised calling encourage There evidence suggest unprecedented, proven adaptable. Adopting smaller-scale, cost, efficient Firms incentive invest enhancing benefits doing so enhanced reputation/public image) exceed (capital investments, productivity, etc.). reasonably assess, accurately determining versus firm challenging. private incentives prove insufficient, role policy intervention? require careful objective (what do mean indicate resilience) (how more/less resilient set shocks?). It interventions outweighed costs, included industry barriers. ongoing writing, view run. Has values underlie consumers’ behaviors? specific system? agriculture economists contribute coming years.